USDA forecasts 2026 net farm income down 2.6%, with income mix shifting
Why this matters: our read
Farm income held up mostly because direct government payments rose by two-thirds, not because underlying farm economics improved. That distinction matters for a dealer reading next year's order books: the income supporting today's equipment purchases is less tied to commodity markets than the headline number suggests.
The US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service forecast US net farm income at $158.4 billion for 2026, down $4.3 billion, or 2.6%, from 2025 in nominal terms, and down 5.5% after adjusting for inflation. Net cash farm income was forecast at $176.4 billion, up 0.4% nominal but down 2.5% adjusted for inflation. Average net cash income per farm was forecast to rise 7.1%, to $121,700.
The pieces behind that total moved in different directions. Crop cash receipts were forecast at $253.0 billion, up $14.6 billion, or 6.1%, from 2025. Animal and animal-product receipts were forecast at $287.3 billion, down $16.4 billion, or 5.4%. Total production expenses were forecast at $492.8 billion, up $21.2 billion, or 4.5%, from $471.6 billion in 2025.
Direct government farm payments were forecast at $47.4 billion, up $19.5 billion, or 69.8%, from $27.9 billion in 2025. Those payments now account for a meaningfully larger share of the income total than a year earlier, even as receipts and expenses moved against farmers on the livestock and cost side.
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- US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
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- Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast
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- Published by
- US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
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- Farm Sector Income Forecast
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